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PerplexityThe character Ryan Bingham, who George Clooney portrayed in “Up In The Air,” had a saying that sheds more light into FY2027 visa spillover and the EB1A India backlog than many legal analyses: the upgrade you get is the seat somebody else failed to grab. This is precisely the mathematics of the visa spillover green card process.
This distinction makes all the difference for FY2027. GreenCardClock modeling posted on September 1, 2026, suggests India’s EB-1 final action date jumping from October 15, 2022, to approximately July to September 2023, the most significant jump among all India categories. The driver is an empty waiting room of the Rest of World EB-1, not a larger pool.
Scope estimate: The FY2026 used a worldwide employment-based cap of 186,317. The FY2027 pool is likely to be either 180,000, 213,000, or 242,000, while India EB-1 Final Action Dates could range from April 2023 cut-off to Current.
What Is Visa Number Spillover?
According to INA 201(d)(2), all unused family-sponsored numbers are counted towards the employment-based limit for the subsequent year. USCIS: “unused family-sponsored visa numbers from the previous fiscal year will be added to the overall employment-based limit.” The figure of 186,317 in FY2026 was 140,000 plus 46,317 leftover from FY2025. Both directions are allowed under INA 201(c), and there is no carryover – the unused number expires on September 30.
There is one misconception repeated several times, including in our January 2026 post. Spillover “does not fall to EB-1 first”: According to INA 203(b), of the enlarged pool of numbers, 28.6% each are allocated to EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 with fixed percentages to EB-4 and EB-5. EB-1 has the sole privilege of utilizing all left EB-4 and EB-5 numbers.
Where Employment-Based Spillover Numbers Come From
Spillover amounts from the employment category are derived from the consular processing issuance backlog against the 226,000 cap for families. The average family issuance per month in FY2026 was 16,424, 14,487, 15,766, 12,551, before falling to 7,720 for February 2026, when the new caps took effect and issued at about half the amount from autumn months.
| DOS worldwide EB limit | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
| 262,288 | 281,507 | 197,091 | 160,791 | 150,000 | 186,317 | unpublished |
Revisions by named analysts continue. In February 2026, Capitol Immigration Law Group estimated the number of unused family visas would be 61,000 to 71,000, indicating a pool of 201,000 to 211,000. GreenCardClock released an estimate of 95,000 in March, 55,000 in April, 81,000 at the end of August, followed by a refined 73,066 in September, in a range of 40,000 to 102,000.
How Much Could FY2027 Add for India?
| Scenario | Fall-up | FY2027 pool | EB-1 worldwide (28.6%) | India EB-1 date |
| FY2026 actual | 46,317 | 186,317 | 53,196 | Oct 15, 2022 |
| Low | ~40,000 | 180,131 | 51,517 | Apr to May 2023 |
| Base | ~73,000 | 213,066 | 60,937 | Jul to Sep 2023 |
| High | ~102,000 | 242,383 | 69,322 | Nov 2023 to Current |
Per-Country Cap Spillover: How India Gets Extra
Under INA 202(a)(2), no country can have more than 7% of the total family and employment-based visas, according to INA 202(e). For FY2026, the per-country cap ceiling stands at 28,862 (or 29,136 with surplus numbers from FY2025), while the EB-1 visa floor for India is just 3,724.
The release clause is provided under INA 202(a)(5)(A): “Where the number available in any category exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the numbers shall be issued without regard to the per-country numerical limitation.” Per-country cap spillover is why India receives several times its floor, and why its outcome tracks Rest of World absorption, not pool size.
Why EB-1 India Moves and EB-2 India Does Not
According to the GreenCardClock’s reading of the USCIS quarterly report on approved I-140 petitions by country, there were no EB-1 petitions from the Rest of World approved but yet to file an I-485 application in FY2025 Q2 and FY2026 Q2 since the category is already Current and holders apply right away.
| FY2027 at the 213,066 base pool | EB-1 | EB-2 | EB-3 |
| ROW demand | 27,300 to 30,800 | 59,100 to 62,100 | 64,900 to 67,800 |
| ROW share of category | 37,100 to 49,900 | 37,100 to 49,900 | 37,100 to 49,900 |
| Spills onward | 6,300 to 22,700 | none | none |
| India’s numbers | 13,981 to 16,572 | 4,266 to 4,605 | 5,189 to 6,185 |
| India projected date | Jul to Sep 2023 | Nov 2013 | Apr to May 2014 |
| India actual FY22 / FY23 / FY24 | 21,437 / 16,604 / 8,809 | 59,431 / 4,301 / 3,916 | 12,571 / 4,765 / 3,643 |
FY2026 figures from the September 2026 Visa Bulletin and DOS Annual Numerical Limits; realized India issuance from the DOS Report of the Visa Office, as of September 4, 2026.
FY2022 serves as the warning column, where India EB-2 received 59,431 visas in DOS issuance data, simply because consular shutdowns rendered Rest of World incapable of using its visa numbers. It currently has 106,124 pending applications with current priority dates and continues receiving new cases. NFAP has registered 980,460 employment-based green cards issued during FY2020-FY2024, with 700,000 expected, but with 280,460 as spillover, and the backlog increased by 20.6%.
When Would These Numbers Show Up?
The legal date is October 1, 2026. Typically, the October Bulletin comes out between September 8-15 and was listed as “Coming Soon” on September 4. The confirmation happens much later: October 2025, December 2025, March 2026 and June 2026 all say “at least 140,000,” while 186,317 appears for the first time in September 2026.
India EB1 Priority Date 2027: What to Expect
Any India EB1 priority date 2027 projection is based on an already declining category. EB-1 India was at April 1, 2023 during spring of 2026, then fell to December 15, 2022 in June and October 15, 2022 in July and remained stagnant till September; while the filing date remained unchanged at December 1, 2023.
October adjustments have been characterized by the biggest movement followed by retrogression for each of the last four fiscal years. FY2025 ended with exhaustion of the world wide EB-1 category on September 8, 2025 and suspension of issuance till October 1; the September 2026 bulletin noted that EB-1 India category “may require making the category unavailable in the coming weeks.”
Observe what DOS has and has not stated. DOS stated in the sections F & I of the bulletin dated July 2026 that it is “likely” that the October 2026 action date would be advanced to at least the level of May 2026 for EB-2 India (July 15, 2014) and June 2026 for EB-5 unreserved India (May 1, 2022), each conditional on Indian demand and FY2027 annual limit. DOS does not forecast dates and it stated nothing about future action date for EB-1 India; therefore every October EB-1 number is a model.
Is This Guaranteed to Happen?
The answer to this question is no. The halt on the issuance of immigrant visas for nationals of 75 nations which went into effect on January 21, 2026, was the cause of every large estimate provided, but this no longer holds. While India is not among these countries, the spillover happened due to family visas of other countries being unissued.
| What changed in 2026 | Effect |
| Judge Jeannette Vargas (S.D.N.Y.) vacated the 75-country pause on August 22 in CLINIC v. Rubio as contrary to law and in excess of statutory authority; DOS says it is “no longer in effect” as of August 21, per its August 28 update | Less spillover |
| On June 5, Dorcas International Institute of Rhode Island v. USCIS (D.R.I.) vacated the USCIS adjudication holds covering nationals of roughly 39 countries | Less spillover |
| Family advances across the August and September bulletins of roughly 34 months (F4) and 30 months (F3) | Less spillover |
| A June model double-counted spillover, cutting India’s FY2027 total from about 45,200 to 23,000; a September 3 correction replaced a 90,000 fall-up with 73,066 | Lower base case |
| FY2021 left roughly 65,000 EB numbers unused against a 262,288 limit; USCIS averaged 11,301 employment adjustment approvals a month in FY2026 against a March peak of 20,885 | Numbers can expire |
Spillover remains very high nevertheless because it is impossible to restore seven months out of twelve within one month before September 30. What is lost is the high end of the range, but no significant analysts have updated their estimates post-vacatur.
FAQs
Visa number spillover refers to the automatic statutory transfer of any unused family-sponsored numbers into the employment-based limit for the next fiscal year through INA 201(d)(2). There is no discretionary action.
There is an annual employment level of 140,000 or more, and whatever else there is comes from underuse of the previous year’s family category; FY2026 got 46,317, thus 186,317 numbers. Unused employment numbers are moved by INA 201(c), and thus, none is banked, and anything not issued by September 30 is lost. Next, INA 203(b) divides the expanded quota by fixed percentages and does not give it to a particular preference.
No specific number for India has been published. Fall-ups worldwide range from roughly 40,000 to 102,000, with India EB-1 numbers forecast to be between 13,981 and 16,572 at a pool size of 213,066.
The projection for India’s EB-1 is that it will receive an estimated 11,000 to 14,700 EB-1 numbers in FY2026. India’s EB-2 does poorly at 4,266 to 4,605 due to the fact that Rest of World demand exceeds their share and none spill over, while India’s EB-3 is forecast to get 5,189 to 6,185 numbers. These figures are model results from published inventory numbers and do not reflect DOS allocations.
Numbers become available starting from October 1, 2026, but the actual number is announced much later. The October Visa Bulletin becomes available during the period between September 8 and 15.
The adjustment applications have another cut-off point since the USCIS releases the applicable chart separately in two to three days’ time; in September 2026, USCIS declared that the applicable chart was the Final Action Dates chart. Use October movement as an indication of supply, and monitor the Visa Bulletin every month.
It is a projection. The process is assured but the amount is yet to be determined until the closing of DOS FY2026 family issuance on September 30, 2026.
Could both court decisions above lead to more issuance and reduce spillover, alongside August and September family jumps? Adjudicatory capacity would determine whether the increased numbers result in greater approvals, as seen in the unutilized numbers of FY2021.
September 8, 2026 
