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PerplexityUpdate (Sept 30, 2026):The first FY2027 visa spillover test for the EB1A India backlog is in, and it came in low. The October 2026 Visa Bulletin, released September 29 and the first of FY2027, moved EB-1 India’s Final Action Date from Oct 15, 2022 to Feb 1, 2023. That is about 3.5 months, below every scenario in our forecast, including the low case of April to May 2023.
The EB-1 India Dates for Filing moved from Dec 1, 2023 to Jul 1, 2024, and USCIS is accepting employment-based adjustment applications under the Dates for Filing chart this month. EB-2 India reopened on Nov 1, 2013, which matches our model but sits about 8.5 months short of the July 15, 2014 level the State Department had called “likely”.
Scope estimate (forecast, as of Sept 4, 2026): FY2026 used a worldwide employment-based cap of 186,317. The FY2027 pool was projected at roughly 180,000, 213,000, or 242,000, with India EB-1 Final Action Dates ranging from an April 2023 cut-off to Current. Actual October 2026: Feb 1, 2023.
What Is Visa Number Spillover?
According to INA 201(d)(2), all unused family-sponsored numbers are counted towards the employment-based limit for the subsequent year. USCIS: “unused family-sponsored visa numbers from the previous fiscal year will be added to the overall employment-based limit.” The figure of 186,317 in FY2026 was 140,000 plus 46,317 left over from FY2025.
Both directions are allowed under INA 201(c), and there is no carryover, so any unused number expires on September 30.
There is one misconception repeated several times, including in our January 2026 post. Spillover “does not fall to EB-1 first”: According to INA 203(b), of the enlarged pool of numbers, 28.6% each are allocated to EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 with fixed percentages to EB-4 and EB-5. EB-1 has the sole privilege of utilizing all left EB-4 and EB-5 numbers.
Where Employment-Based Spillover Numbers Come From
Spillover amounts for the employment category are derived from the consular processing issuance backlog against the 226,000 cap for families. The average family issuance per month in FY2026 was 16,424, 14,487, 15,766, and 12,551, before falling to 7,720 for February 2026, when the new caps took effect and issuance ran at about half the autumn level.
| DOS worldwide EB limit | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
| 262,288 | 281,507 | 197,091 | 160,791 | 150,000 | 186,317 | unpublished |
Revisions by named analysts continued through the summer. In February 2026, Capitol Immigration Law Group estimated unused family visas at 61,000 to 71,000, indicating a pool of 201,000 to 211,000. GreenCardClock released an estimate of 95,000 in March, 55,000 in April, 81,000 in late May, and a refined 73,066 in September, within a range of 40,000 to 102,000.
How Much Could FY2027 Add for India?
| Scenario | Fall-up | FY2027 pool | EB-1 worldwide (28.6%) | India EB-1 date |
| FY2026 actual | 46,317 | 186,317 | 53,196 | Oct 15, 2022 |
| Low | ~40,000 | 180,131 | 51,517 | Apr to May 2023 |
| Base | ~73,000 | 213,066 | 60,937 | Jul to Sep 2023 |
| High | ~102,000 | 242,383 | 69,322 | Nov 2023 to Current |
Scenario projections as of Sept 4, 2026. The FY2027 pool is a model estimate; DOS has not yet published the FY2027 employment-based limit.
Visa Bulletin October 2026: Forecast vs. Actual
| India category | Sept 2026 bulletin | Forecast for Oct 2026 | Actual Oct 2026 |
| EB-1 Final Action | Oct 15, 2022 | Jul to Sep 2023 (base) | Feb 1, 2023 |
| EB-1 Dates for Filing | Dec 1, 2023 | Not modeled | Jul 1, 2024 |
| EB-2 Final Action | Unavailable | Nov 2013 (model); at least Jul 15, 2014 (DOS “likely”) | Nov 1, 2013 |
| EB-3 Final Action | Jan 1, 2014 | Apr to May 2014 | Jan 1, 2014 (unchanged) |
| EB-5 Unreserved Final Action | Unavailable | At least May 1, 2022 (DOS “likely”) | Dec 1, 2023 |
Source: U.S. Department of State, October 2026 Visa Bulletin (released Sept 29, 2026). DOS guidance from the July 2026 Visa Bulletin. Confirm current dates on travel.state.gov before filing.
EB-1 India moved, but by less than the low scenario, and EB-3 India did not move at all against a projected advance. EB-5 Unreserved was the one category that beat the guidance DOS had given.
Per-Country Cap Spillover: How India Gets Extra
Under INA 202(a)(2), no country can receive more than 7% of the total family and employment-based visas, subject to INA 202(e). For FY2026, the per-country cap ceiling stands at 28,862 (or 29,136 with surplus numbers from FY2025), while the EB-1 floor for India is just 3,724.
The release clause is provided under INA 202(a)(5)(A): “Where the number available in any category exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the numbers shall be issued without regard to the per-country numerical limitation.” Per-country cap spillover is why India receives several times its floor, and why its outcome tracks Rest of World absorption, not pool size.
Why EB-1 India Moves and EB-2 India Does Not
According to our reading of the USCIS quarterly report on approved I-140 petitions by country, there were no Rest of World EB-1 petitions apAccording to our reading of the USCIS quarterly report on approved I-140 petitions by country, there were no Rest of World EB-1 petitions approved but yet to file an I-485 in FY2025 Q2 and FY2026 Q2, since the category is already current and holders apply right away.
| FY2027 at the 213,066 base pool | EB-1 | EB-2 | EB-3 |
| ROW demand | 27,300 to 30,800 | 59,100 to 62,100 | 64,900 to 67,800 |
| ROW share of category | 37,100 to 49,900 | 37,100 to 49,900 | 37,100 to 49,900 |
| Spills onward | 6,300 to 22,700 | none | none |
| India’s numbers | 13,981 to 16,572 | 4,266 to 4,605 | 5,189 to 6,185 |
| India projected date | Jul to Sep 2023 | Nov 2013 | Apr to May 2014 |
| India actual date, Oct 2026 | Feb 1, 2023 | Nov 1, 2013 | Jan 1, 2014 |
| India actual FY22 / FY23 / FY24 | 21,437 / 16,604 / 8,809 | 59,431 / 4,301 / 3,916 | 12,571 / 4,765 / 3,643 |
FY2026 figures from the September 2026 Visa Bulletin and DOS Annual Numerical Limits; realized India issuance from the DOS Report of the Visa Office. Projections as of September 4, 2026; October 2026 actuals added September 30, 2026.
FY2022 serves as the warning column, where India EB-2 received 59,431 visas in DOS issuance data, simply because consular shutdowns left the Rest of World unable to use its visa numbers. It currently has 106,124 pending applications with current priority dates and continues receiving new cases. NFAP has registered 980,460 employment-based green cards issued during FY2020 to FY2024, against 700,000 expected, with 280,460 coming from spillover, and the backlog still increased by 20.6%.
When the FY2027 Visa Bulletin Numbers Arrived
FY2027 began on October 1, 2026. The October bulletin arrived on September 29, well after the September 8 to 15 window in which it usually appears. The FY2027 employment-based limit itself has not yet been published; in FY2026, bulletins from October 2025 through June 2026 said only “at least 140,000,” and 186,317 first appeared in September 2026.
That means the October dates were set before DOS publicly confirmed the size of the FY2027 pool. Expect further movement, in either direction, as the annual limit is finalized.
India EB1 Priority Date 2027: What to Expect
Any India EB1 priority date 2027 projection starts from a category that declined through FY2026. EB-1 India was at April 1, 2023 in spring 2026, then fell to December 15, 2022 in June and October 15, 2022 in July, where it stayed through September, while the filing date remained at December 1, 2023. The October 2026 bulletin reset the Final Action Date to February 1, 2023 and the filing date to July 1, 2024.
October adjustments have been characterized by the biggest movement followed by retrogression in each of the last four fiscal years. FY2025 ended with exhaustion of the worldwide EB-1 category on September 8, 2025 and suspension of issuance until October 1, and the September 2026 bulletin warned that EB-1 India “may require making the category unavailable in the coming weeks.”
DOS had signaled in the July 2026 bulletin that it was “likely” the October 2026 dates would advance to at least the May 2026 level for EB-2 India (July 15, 2014) and the June 2026 level for EB-5 Unreserved India (May 1, 2022), each conditional on Indian demand and the FY2027 annual limit. The actual result split: EB-2 India opened on November 1, 2013, below that level, while EB-5 Unreserved opened on December 1, 2023, above it. DOS gave no guidance on EB-1 India, so every October EB-1 figure before September 29 was a model.
Is This Guaranteed to Happen?
No, and the October bulletin shows why. Every large spillover estimate was built on the halt on immigrant visa issuance for nationals of 75 countries that took effect on January 21, 2026, and that premise no longer holds. India is not among those countries; the spillover came from family visas that went unissued to nationals of other countries.
| What changed in 2026 | Effect |
| Judge Jeannette Vargas (S.D.N.Y.) vacated the 75-country pause on August 22 in CLINIC v. Rubio as contrary to law and in excess of statutory authority; DOS says it is “no longer in effect” as of August 21, per its August 28 update | Less spillover |
| On June 5, Dorcas International Institute of Rhode Island v. USCIS (D.R.I.) vacated the USCIS adjudication holds covering nationals of roughly 39 countries | Less spillover |
| Family advances across the August and September bulletins of roughly 34 months (F4) and 30 months (F3) | Less spillover |
| A June model double-counted spillover, cutting India’s FY2027 total from about 45,200 to 23,000; a September 3 correction replaced a 90,000 fall-up with 73,066 | Lower base case |
| FY2021 left roughly 65,000 EB numbers unused against a 262,288 limit; USCIS averaged 11,301 employment adjustment approvals a month in FY2026 against a March peak of 20,885 | Numbers can expire |
Spillover should still be large, because seven months of suppressed family issuance could not be made up in the weeks before September 30. The October bulletin does not explain why EB-1 India moved less than modeled. The same bulletin retrogressed worldwide EB-2 and EB-3, and State said those retrogressions were needed “to keep visa use within FY 2027 quarterly and annual limits,” which is consistent with heavy Rest of World demand absorbing numbers India had been expected to receive.
FAQs
Visa number spillover is the automatic statutory transfer of unused family-sponsored numbers into the next fiscal year’s employment-based limit under INA 201(d)(2). It is not a discretionary action.
The annual employment level is at least 140,000, and anything above that comes from underuse of the previous year’s family category; FY2026 received 46,317, for 186,317 numbers. INA 201(c) moves unused numbers between the two systems, so none is banked, and anything not issued by September 30 is lost. INA 203(b) then divides the expanded quota by fixed percentages rather than giving it to a particular preference.
No India-specific number has been published. Worldwide fall-up estimates range from roughly 40,000 to 102,000, with India EB-1 projected at 13,981 to 16,572 numbers at a 213,066 pool.
For comparison, GreenCardClock estimated India used about 14,700 EB-1 numbers in FY2026. India’s EB-2 fares poorly at 4,266 to 4,605 due to the fact that Rest of World demand exceeds their share and none spills over, while India EB-3 is projected at 5,189 to 6,185. These are model results from published inventory data, not DOS allocations, and the smaller-than-projected October 2026 movement suggests caution about the upper end of each range.
The numbers became available on October 1, 2026, the first day of FY2027. The October 2026 Visa Bulletin was released on September 29, 2026, later than the usual September 8 to 15 window.
For adjustment of status, USCIS separately designates which chart applies each month. For October 2026, USCIS is accepting employment-based applications under the Dates for Filing chart, a change from September 2026, when it required the Final Action Dates chart. Because the FY2027 annual limit is not yet published, monitor the Visa Bulletin and the USCIS chart page every month.
The mechanism is guaranteed by statute; the amount is a projection. The exact figure depends on FY2026 family issuance, which closes on September 30, 2026, and DOS has historically confirmed the final EB limit months into the fiscal year.
The two court decisions above, alongside the August and September family advances, likely increased family issuance and reduced spillover. Whether more numbers turn into more approvals also depends on adjudication capacity, as the unused numbers of FY2021 showed.
The EB-1 India Final Action Date in the October 2026 Visa Bulletin is February 1, 2023, up from October 15, 2022 in September. The Dates for Filing is July 1, 2024, up from December 1, 2023.
Because USCIS is accepting employment-based adjustment applications under the Dates for Filing chart in October 2026, EB-1 India applicants with a priority date before July 1, 2024 who are otherwise eligible may be able to file Form I-485 this month. Final approval still requires a priority date before the Final Action Date.
The advance of about 3.5 months fell short of every published scenario we tracked, and October movement has been followed by retrogression in each of the last four fiscal years. Confirm the current chart on the USCIS Adjustment of Status Filing Charts page before filing.
What This Means for EB-1A Candidates
Expansion affects timing, not eligibility requirements. USCIS continues to apply the same regulatory standards and final merits adjudication on the record as a whole, and a larger pool brings more attention, not less scrutiny.
EB-1A offers three structural advantages: no labor certification, which matters when the DOL’s processing-time page showed PERM analysts reviewing November 2025 applications in August 2026, an average of 336 calendar days; self-petitioning; and the ability to retain a previously granted EB-2 priority date when moving to EB-1A.
The backlogs confirm this. NFAP lists 996,599 Indian nationals in the first three preferences in December 2025, 79% of 1.26 million. According to NFAP, EB-1 India stands at 51,619 and its backlog fell 28.3% from April 2020 to December 2025, while EB-2 increased 17.6% and EB-3 51.1%, with the current wait for EB-1 India at four to five years compared to 179 for EB-2 and 38 for EB-3.
None of this shortens the line; it makes readiness the one variable under your control. Schedule your consultation with EB1A Experts for a review of your evidence against current USCIS standards.
October 8, 2026 
