EB-1A Visa Trends: Filings, Approvals, and Denials (2018–2025) — A Data Deep Dive

2. Filing Volume Trends: What Changed Over 7 Years

EB-1A filings by year have shown consistent increases since 2018, followed by accelerated growth after 2020 as professionals began seeking alternatives to the backlogged categories previously in place. USCIS data shows that the area of "extraordinary ability" pathways has experienced a clear shift due to this surge of interest.

Key points of inflection for filing patterns are as follows:

• 2019–2020: A period of moderate increases in EB-1A and other categories as individuals became more aware of the pathways available to them.
• 2020–2021: COVID-19 disrupted filing trends, leading to a temporary reduction in EB-1A filings.
• 2022–2024: Employment-based backlogs resulting from the pandemic have increased interest in filing through EB-1A pathways.
• 2025: EB-1A filing volumes have reached historically high levels.

The overall EB-1A immigration data does not suggest that the quality of applicants is lower; it reflects changing strategies among professionals- many are preparing earlier in their careers, and more senior-level professionals are now filing applications sooner. Additionally, the rise in filing volume has not led to a corresponding drop in approval rates, thereby contradicting the notion that greater popularity automatically lowers approval rates. In USCIS EB-1A data analysis, volume increases reflect growing demand for filings, not declining standards.

3. Approval vs Denial Rates: Patterns Over Time

In the period from 2018 through 2025, EB-1A approval and denial rates are fluctuating but show identifiable patterns of increase and decrease. There were higher approval rates during some years when applications were below average and lower during higher-volume application periods; however, there was never an overall collapse in EB-1A approvals during these periods.

Based on extraordinary ability green card statistics, we learn another important fact: Even though higher application volumes do not mean there will be fewer approvals, how the evidence was presented, as well as the manner in which the case was set up, were more significant in determining a final result than the volume of applications received.

Three significant areas where there has been increased scrutiny by USCIS officers over time include:

• Demonstrated national and or internationally recognized impact.
• Recognition from outside the employer.
• Consistency of evidence submitted in all materials.

As scrutiny intensified, the number of granted applications (or "denials") increased slightly because more borderline cases entered the application pool; however, the number of well-prepared, submitted cases remained constant, resulting in a steady number of approvals over time. This is why the EB-1A success rate by year shows variation but has not collapsed.

By analyzing multi-year data regarding EB-1A denial reasons, applicants can separate the actual threats to their case from noise. The trend indicates that in recent years there has been significant refinement (i.e., adjustments to the volume and quality of the evidence), rather than a restriction, in the evidence presented.

4. RFE Trends & Processing Time Shifts

The increased EB-1A RFEs trends during the past couple of years is a clear indicator of the growing number of RFEs issued since 2021, with consistent approval rates, but the increase in RFEs reflects greater scrutiny rather than an increased likelihood of denial.

The introduction of premium processing and the resulting reduced processing times will allow visa applicants to have their applications processed quickly, but the EB-1A visa statistics indicate that faster processing does not translate into less scrutiny or due diligence. RFEs are issued through a "reviewing time" instead of issuing RFEs once an application is submitted.

Presently, based on the most recent data regarding EB-1A RFEs, the RFEs will be significantly more focused on impact explanation, story consistency, and narrative consistency instead of merely meeting the threshold for EB-1A eligibility. Due to the quicker processing timeframe now available through premium processing, the pressure is shifted to present clear and concise information with a consistent narrative at the time the application is initially submitted, now more than ever.

5. What the Data Signals for 2026–2027 Applicants

Looking to the future, the EB-1A visa trends 2018–2025 indicate that, rather than seeing a large spike in EB-1A approvals or a systemic tightening of EB-1A visa approvals, applicants will be able to strategically file for EB-1A visas.

Currently, the types of applicants who are best positioned to file for EB-1A visas are those who have a:

• History of sustained recognition for multiple years
• Independent validation of their contributions
• Well-defined narrative alignment with the USCIS EB-1A visa eligibility criteria

EB-1A USCIS data analysis will allow current applicants to use it as a roadmap and not a deterrent to filing for EB1A visas, as it indicates that multi-year preparation time is highly correlated to increased rates of success with USCIS, especially now that USCIS officials are valuing the tightness of a narrative in relation to a larger number of submissions.

A review of seven years of EB-1A USCIS data analysis shows that being successful in this category leads to preparation, not urgency. Both EB-1A approval and denial rates have always favoured applicants who invest the time necessary to create a complete record, secure substantial third-party endorsements, and develop a coherent narrative of ongoing extraordinary achievement. Understanding the trends in EB-1A approvals today will allow you to prepare your materials consistent with the types of adjudication expectations being utilized by USCIS.

6. FAQs

What are the EB-1A approval and denial trends from 2018 to 2025?

Approval rates fluctuated moderately while denials rose slightly during high-volume years. Overall, long-term success rates remained stable when cases were well-prepared.

Has the EB-1A approval rate increased or decreased in recent years?

Recent years show stabilization rather than a sharp decline, despite higher filing volumes, according to EB-1A visa statistics.

What are the most common reasons for EB-1A denials based on USCIS data?

Denials most often relate to insufficient demonstration of impact, lack of independent recognition, or weak alignment across evidence.

How do EB-1A filing volumes correlate with approval rates?

Higher filings do not directly reduce approvals. Data shows preparation quality matters more than applicant volume.

Did COVID-19 or policy changes impact EB-1A adjudications?

Yes. COVID-19 caused temporary slowdowns, followed by increased filings and RFEs as processing normalized.

How reliable is USCIS EB-1A data for predicting case outcomes?

While not predictive at the individual level, EB-1A USCIS data analysis is reliable for identifying macro trends and risk signals.

What do recent EB-1A trends mean for applicants filing in 2025?

They suggest steady standards, higher scrutiny, and strong outcomes for applicants who prepare strategically.